Thursday, September 2, 2010 August Market Statistics Aug 09 compared to Aug 10by Ben Chimes on Thu, Sep, 2, 2010 03:20 PM Wednesday, August 4, 2010 Homebuyers and sellers less active in Julyby Ben Chimes on Wed, Aug, 4, 2010 02:35 PM Article from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver
VANCOUVER, BC - Home sales activity in Greater Vancouver was quieter last month than most Julys over the past decade, with residential sales, prices, and the number of homes listed for sale trending downward in recent months.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that the number of residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 2,255 in July 2010. This represents a 45.2 per cent decline from the 4,114 sales in July 2009, the highest selling July ever recorded, and a 24.1 per cent decline compared to June 2010.
Looking back further, last month’s residential sales represent a 3.7 per cent increase over the 2,174 residential sales in July 2008, a 41.8 per cent decline compared to July 2007’s 3,873 sales, and a 17.5 per cent decline compared to July 2006’s 2,732 sales.
“With the pace of home sales and listings easing off in our market, we’ve begun to see a levelling of home prices from the record highs seen in the spring, creating greater affordability,” Jake Moldowan, REBGV president said. “Activity in today’s marketplace is clearly trending in favour of buyers.”
The number of properties listed for sale on the market has been trending downward since spring, with 4,138 new listings in July compared to April’s peak of 7,648. New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) declined 17.9 per cent in July 2010 compared to July 2009, when 5,041 properties were listed for sale.
At 16,431, the total number of property listings on the MLS® in July declined 6.5 per cent compared to last month and increased 33 per cent compared to July 2009.
“It’s currently taking home sellers who work with a REALTOR®, on average, 45 days to sell their property, which is a historically healthy timeframe for people on both sides of a transaction,” Moldowan said.
Since spring, housing prices have decreased 2.8 per cent compared to the all-time high reached in April when the residential benchmark price was $593,419. Over the last 12 months, the MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver increased 9.1 per cent to $577,074 in July 2010 from $528,821 in July 2009.
Sales of detached properties in July 2010 reached 908, a decrease of 43.7 per cent from the 1,614 detached sales recorded in July 2009 and a 9.8 per cent increase from the 827 units sold in July 2008. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 11.5 per cent from July 2009 to $793,193.
Sales of apartment properties reached 979 in July 2010, a decline of 42.7 per cent compared to the 1,708 sales in July 2009 and an increase of 1.3 per cent compared to the 966 sales in July 2008.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 6.2 per cent from July 2009 to $387,879.
Attached property sales in July 2010 totalled 368, a decline of 53.5 per cent compared to the 792 sales in July 2009 and a 3.4 per cent decline from the 381 attached properties sold in July 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 8.6 per cent between July 2009 and 2010 to $490,995.
For more information please contact:
Craig Munn, Assistant Manager of Communications
Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver
Phone: (604) 730-3146
cmunn@rebgv.org
Friday, July 30, 2010 Subject: BC Home Sales to Rise in 2011 - BCREA Housing Forecast Update: Third Quarter 2010by Ben Chimes on Fri, Jul, 30, 2010 11:37 AM An interesting report release by the BCREA today predicts a rise in home sales in 2011. Though their forecast for this year shows a 7% decline compared to 2009, they expect to see a 5% rise in 2011. Stating a slowly falling number of listings heading into the second half of the year (which, while contrary to many media, is quite accurate), it looks like the current Buyer's market may be shorter-lived than originally thought and balance could be restored by early next year.
Read the full article below:
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For a PDF version of this news release, including data table, follow this link:
www.bcrea.bc.ca/news_room/2010-07-30Forecast.pdf.
For immediate release
BC Home Sales to Rise in 2011
BCREA Housing Forecast Update - Third Quarter 2010
Vancouver, BC – July 30, 2010. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its Housing Forecast Update for the third quarter of 2010 today.
 BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to decline 7 per cent from 85,028 units in 2009 to 79,500 units this year, before increasing 5 per cent to 83,400 units in 2011.
“The volatility in consumer demand characteristic of the past 24 months is expected to give way to more gradual improvement through 2011,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Housing demand has fallen back to earth from its break-neck pace at the end of 2009 and is expected to more closely match overall economic performance over the next 18 months.”
“A larger inventory of homes for sale has created the most favourable conditions for home buyers in more than a year,” added Muir. “However, the buyers’ market is expected to be short-lived as total active listings peaked in May and are beginning to wane, with more balanced conditions set to emerge in the fall.”
The average MLS® residential price is forecast to climb 6 per cent to $492,800 this year and remain relatively unchanged in 2011, albeit declining by 1 per cent to $489,500.
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Friday, July 9, 2010 Kitsilano Market Statistics - June 08 - June 10by Ben Chimes on Fri, Jul, 9, 2010 12:18 PM
With 2010 reaching its halfway point, let's take a look back at the Kitsilano real estate statistics thus far.
Describing the real estate market in Kitsilano for the first 6 months of the year as dynamic would be an understatement. After seeing inventory near record lows to start the year, the number of new listings hitting the market grew sharply through April before falling off again May and June. This curve has been particularly sharp in the condo market, where the number of listings doubled from February to May, only to fall right back down in June.
Looking at prices, the condo market saw its peak it February, before sliding downwards from March to May. June did show a bit of a rebound buoyed by a rush to buy new condos and town homes before HST kicked in. Look for prices to trend downwards through the summer.
In the detached homes market, we have seen relative stability through the first 5 months of the year after moderate declines to end 2009. A dramatic spike in prices in June can also be attributed to a large amount of new homes sold just prior to HST implementation. Watch for the average sale price to fall back in line with the numbers from the rest of the year.
 Thursday, June 10, 2010 May Market Statisticsby Ben Chimes on Thu, Jun, 10, 2010 03:35 PM Tuesday, May 4, 2010 Home buyer and seller activity increases in busy spring marketby Ben Chimes on Tue, May, 4, 2010 04:07 PM Article from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver...
The Greater Vancouver housing market experienced increased activity in April thanks to a steady balance of home buyers and sellers entering the marketplace.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 3,512 in April 2010, the fifth highest-selling April on record. The figure represents an increase of 18.5 per cent compared to the 2,963 sales in April 2009; 9.1 per cent more than April 2008’s 3,218 sales; and 3.7 per cent more than April 2007’s 3,387 sales. April 2010 sales also represent a 12 per cent increase compared to last month.
“We’re in the midst of another strong spring season thanks to high levels of activity on both the buyer and seller side of our market,” Jake Moldowan, REBGV president said. “The number of homes coming on the market has increased significantly in recent months, which is providing a healthy level of choice for those looking to buy during this busy period.”
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 7,648 in April 2010, a 64.5 per cent increase compared to April 2009 when 4,649 new units were listed, and a 9.2 per cent increase compared to March 2010 when 7,004 properties were added to the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®).
At 15,901, the total number of property listings on the MLS® increased 17 per cent in April compared to last month, and is up 11 per cent compared to this time last year.
Over the last 12 months, the MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver increased 18.9 per cent to $593,419 from $499,021 in April 2009.
“It was at this time last year when home prices in our region began their recovery from the declines that occurred during the recession period,” Moldowan said.
Sales of detached properties in April 2010 reached 1,370, an increase of 15.1 per cent from the 1,190 detached sales recorded in April 2009 and a six per cent increase from the 1,293 units sold in April 2008. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 21.2 per cent from April 2009 to $818,403.
Sales of apartment properties reached 1,526 in April 2010, an increase of 29.4 per cent compared to the 1,179 sales in April 2009 and an increase of 15.9 per cent compared to the 1,317 sales in April 2008.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 16.9 per cent from April 2009 to $397,779.
Attached property sales in April 2010 totalled 616, an increase of 3.7 per cent compared to the 594 sales in April 2009 and a 1.3 per cent increase from the 608 attached properties sold in April 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 16.4 per cent between April 2009 and 2010 to $502,399. Tuesday, April 20, 2010 Bank of Canada sets stage for rate hikeby Ben Chimes on Tue, Apr, 20, 2010 06:29 PM The Bank of Canada scrapped on Tuesday its conditional commitment on interest rates, setting the stage for a June hike if it so chooses.
The move had an immediate impact on the Canadian dollar, as it surged by US1.6¢ to trade just over parity with the U.S. currency, as of 10 AM ET. Bond yields across the board climbed, with the yield on the two-year note hitting a 52-week high.
The decision was unveiled in its latest interest-rate statement, and it marked a “dramatic change in tone” from the central bank, said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.
“A rate hike in June is now very much on the table,” he said, adding that increases of 50-basis-points can’t be ruled out.
The central bank’s reasoning is based on a new hawkish inflation forecast that envisages consumer price increases hovering above the key 2% level over the next 12 months. In its previous forecast, the central bank didn’t expect inflation to hit 2% until the third quarter of 2011 at the earliest. The central bank sets its key policy rate to achieve and maintain 2% inflation.
Further, the economic recovery “is proceeding somewhat more rapidly” than anticipated as consumers took advantage of record-low rates, the central bank said. As such, it has revised upward its growth projection for this year, to 3.7% expansion from its previous 2.9% forecast, and moved up the timing at which time the Canadian economy is expected to hit full potential – now scheduled to happen in the second quarter of next year, as opposed to the third quarter.
These developments led the central bank’s governing council to ditch its conditional commitment on rates, issued roughly a year ago. The pledge was to keep its key policy rate at its lowest-possible level, 0.25%, until July in an effort to pump up the economy. But the commitment was conditional on its forecast on inflation – which has exceeded expectations.
“With recent improvements in the economic outlook, the need for such extraordinary policy is now passing, and it is appropriate to begin to lessen the degree of monetary stimulus,” the central bank said in its statement. “The extent and timing will depend on the outlook for economic activity and inflation, and will be consistent with achieving the 2% inflation target.”
In another stimulus-removing move, the governing council also announced it would cease undertaking special liquidity operations that pump cash into the marketplace. The last such undertaking happened on April 12, and no more are planned. These financing activities were launched at the onset of the financial crisis, to ensure there was enough cash in the system to flow to credit-worthy households and businesses.
Andrew Pyle, wealth advisor and markets commentator with ScotiaMcLeod, said the statement indicated there’s no reason to keep rates at emergency levels any further. “The big question now is how far rates can move before the bank has to release its foot from the brake pedal.”’
However, the market might be getting ahead of itself in terms of its initial reaction to the statement, warned Eric Lascelles, chief Canadian strategist for TD Securities, because risks remain to the bank’s outlook. Further, the central bank will wait for some key data – most notably consumer prices in March, due out Friday – before it settles as to when to raise rates and by how much.
In its last rate statement, on March 2, the central bank took its first steps toward returning the country to more normal rates by signalling a more hawkish tone on inflation and acknowledging the stronger-than-anticipated economy. A few weeks later, Mark Carney, the Bank of Canada governor, delivered a speech in which he emphasized that his rate commitment “expressly conditional,” leading analysts to revisit their outlook and pencil in the possibility of a June increase.
Prior to the Tuesday morning rate announcement, the market had priced in a 33% chance of a June rate hike – down from the 50%-plus odds built into bankers’ acceptance futures last week, according to BMO Capital Markets in a note Tuesday morning. Traders had also anticipated increases in the central bank benchmark rate of up to 125 basis points for the remainder of 2010.
The statement provided some details regarding the revised central bank’s outlook, to be released on Thursday. The forecast period now extends out to the end of 2012, and the biggest change relates to inflation.
Headline inflation is now expected to be “slightly higher” than 2% over the coming year before returning to the 2% target in the second half of 2011. The previous expectation was for inflation to hover below 2% until slowly reaching that mark in the third quarter of 2011.
Meanwhile, core inflation, which strips volatile-priced items such as food and energy, is expected to ease slightly this quarter but remain “near” 2% through to the end of 2012.
Recent data for February suggested core inflation surpassed the 2% level.
Economic growth in 2010 has been bumped up, to 3.7% from 2.9%, but then downgraded to 3.1% in 2011 from the previous 3.5% estimate. The Canadian economy is benefiting from noticeable “momentum” in the emerging markets, whereas the recovery the developed economies remains “relatively subdued” due to overextended household and government balance sheets.
“Despite recent progress, considerable uncertainty remains about the durability of the global recovery,” the statement said.
The Bank of Canada has pencilled in 1.9% growth for that year – a level at which the bank had warned about unless Canadian productivity improved.
“The persistent strength of the Canadian dollar, Canada’s poor relative productivity performance and the low absolute level of U.S. demand will continue to act as significant drags on economic activity in Canada,” the central bank said.
Financial Post Tuesday, April 13, 2010 BC Home Sales Moderate in First Quarterby Ben Chimes on Tue, Apr, 13, 2010 11:51 AM Statistis from the BCREA...
The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province climbed 43 per cent to 7,110 units in March compared to the same month last year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, MLS® residential unit sales in the province increased 6 per cent compared to February 2010. However, home sales in March were 20 per cent lower than December 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis.
"Home sales have moderated since the beginning of the year," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. Waning pent-up demand and eroding affordability were key factors in the market. "Despite an improving provincial economy, higher mortgage interest rates and tighter credit conditions for low-equity homebuyers and investors will squeeze some prospective buyers out of the market this spring," added Muir.
The BC residential sales dollar volume increased 95 per cent to $9.22 billion in the first quarter of 2010 compared to the same period last year. Residential units sales rose 64 per cent to 18,284 units, while the average MLS® residential price climbed 19 per cent to $504,312 over the same period.
Thursday, April 8, 2010 Spring is in the Airby Ben Chimes on Thu, Apr, 8, 2010 04:24 PM
As mentioned above, the typically busy Spring market has gone into over-drive this year. With new mortgage rules in effect April 19 that will make it tougher to borrow in some cases, the new harmonized sales tax (HST) in Ontario and British Columbia beginning on July 1, and the Bank of Canada likely to hike short-term interest rates, it's no surprise buyers are becoming panicked.
With inventory levels remain low across the country, even after three straight months of slowly building supply, year-over-year sales for the first two months of 2010 that were up 44.2%. Prices are also being boosted with the average home in Canada selling for 18.2% higher than just a year ago. Here in Vancouver, March sales were up 38.5% from 2009, while prices are up just over 20% from a year ago.
Doug Porter, deputy chief economist with Bank of Montreal, said last week's interest rate hikes from the banks has turned up the heat on the spring housing market."When we first get a whiff of real mortgage rate hikes, it pushes any fence sitters," he said. "If anything, it will heighten an already strong spring market."
The new federal guidelines, which kick in April 19, require anyone buying a home with less than 20% of the purchase price for a down payment to qualify based on the posted rate for a five-year mortgage, now at 5.85%. For terms longer than five years, consumers can qualify based on the actual rate on their contract. While this will not affect everyone, first time buyers and people trying to stretch their budget may discover challenges when trying to qualify for a new mortgage. Another deadline looming for home buyers is the arrival of the HST in Ontario and British Columbia on July 1, which will add about $2,500 to $3,000 to the average purchase.
All of this, of course raises the affordability issue... Is it better to buy when the market is slightly inflated but the mortgage rates are at all time lows? Or is it better to wait and see if the market turns to get a lower purchase price but pay higher borrowing costs? Ultimately, it depends on your individual financial situation and how much risk tolerance you possess. Just make sure you take the time to work through the numbers and stay within your means... | |
