Market Update

September 2011

I hope everyone enjoyed the (finally) fabulous weather we saw in August. I was off on a little European adventure to end the summer, but am back in the swing of things now feeling fully re-charged!

Taking a peek back at the numbers from August, you will notice that we have added another statistic to our charts: Median Sale Price. This was done to help avoid the sometimes dramatic spikes and drops that we would see due to the odd ultra luxury property that would completely skew the numbers, particularly in the Vancouver Westside and Downtown regions. The median price point is a more accurate reflection of where the true middle of a market is, though we will continue to show the average price as well as this is the number most often referred to in the media. If you have any questions on the differences, please don't hesitate to ask.

On to the trends...

(1) Not at all surprisingly, sales numbers plunged in August as is typical at the end of the Summer. Interestingly enough, sales activity as a whole was up 8% over August of last year.

(2) Active listings rose marginally in the Vancouver Westside and Eastside areas, while dipping slightly in North Vancouver and Downtown. Across the board, the changes here were not what I would consider significant. It will be interesting to see what happens with inventory over the next few weeks as September is typically a busy listing month.

(3) Using the 'new' Average Median Sale Price, we see minimal price drops in Vancouver Eastside, North Vancouver and Downtown. Vancouver Westside attached dipped slightly as well, while the Vancouver Westside detached market was the only area that show prices increases, effectively negating the price drops we had seen there last month.

Even with all the global economic stories of woe out there, the market here appears stable and healthy. September is historically a busier time in the Vancouver market and the general buzz around here suggests that this year will be no different.

Ben

Market Update

June 2011

Well, I was hoping we would be Stanley Cup champions by the time I sat down to write this month's newsletter, but I will certainly settle for the fact that we are still in the running! In fact, I think the Canucks playoff run added some much needed positivity to the city considering the awful run of weather we had through April and May. Let's hope the beautiful sunshine we've had to start June sticks around for awhile.

Now, on to the real estate market.... As discussed last month, the trend of decreasing sales volume continued through May with declines from 5% to 40%. It does appear that the early start to this year's Spring market has resulted in an early start to the Summer slowdown as well, which we now appear to be fully entrenched in. That said, the decreasing sales volume appears to be the only trend that is consistent across all market, so this month let's take a look at the individual markets a little more closely.

The Vancouver West detached market finally showed some signs of slowing of its torrid run to start the year. Sales dropped 17.1% while prices fell 8.7%, with active inventory remaining flat. The absorption rate remains high and the market here is still strong, but I expect to see further declines in this market moving forward. In the Vancouver West attached market, sales volume dropped a more dramatic 36.7% with prices slipping 9% and inventory climbing 6.7%. The declining sales here is not entirely unpredictable given the seasonality of the market, though the degree of the decline is more than expected. I suspect we may see a mild rebound in June and July.

The detached Vancouver East market showed the most resiliency this past month with sales slipping a mere 4.8% and prices down just 1.8%. Inventory actually dropped here as well, down 4.3%. Given the current disparity in prices between East and West, I believe this market will remain strong throughout the year. The Vancouver East attached market shows more similarity to its West side counterpart, with sales down 31%. This market, however, also shows inventory dropping 7.7% and prices that have actually climbed 2.4%. I would venture to guess that we will see these prices follow the downward trend next month.

Downtown, we saw a price rebound of 4.7% this month, after a significant drop last month, in spite of sales being down over 34%. Listing inventory remained flat, with less than a 1% change, so look for this market to remain stable over the Summer.

Taking a look at North Vancouver now, we see trends similar to the East side. The detached market showed modest declines in sales (10.7%) and prices (3.6%), but also displaying a dip in inventory of 4.1%. The attached market here took the hardest hit volume wise, with a 41.6% drop in sales and 7.6% increase in listing activity, but also saw prices climb 8.7% to an average $526,753. As with the East side market, look for those prices to slip downwards over the summer as well.

Much of the activity in the market right now can be attributed to seasonal factors, as the trends do follow in line with what we would expect historically. The exact timing this year has been moved up 4-6 weeks, but the general movement and scale of things falls within the expected range. Overall, homes that are priced well are still selling quickly and Buyers are seeing a little more selection than the beginning of the year presented. Enjoy the start of the Summer and let me know if you have any questions!

Ben