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Monday, December 10, 2012

Vancouver Monthly Real Estate Market Update Newsletter - December

 

Market Update

DECEMBER 2012

November continued the trend we have been seeing over the past 6 months: fewer homes listed for sale, decreased sales numbers and a gradual decline in average home prices. For a frame of reference, November sales for Greater Vancouver were 30.3% below the 10 year average, which is largely due to many Sellers simply pulling their homes off the market rather than lower their prices any further. New listings were also 12.9% below the 10-year average, while the sales-to-active-listings ratio remained constant from October at 11%.

 

Vancouver West:
Attached home sales were up 38.6% over last month and 15.1% over last year, while active listings were up 23.3% over last month and a whopping 76.7% over last year. This combination resulted in a drop of about 13% both compared to last month and last year. Interestingly, the average price per square foot is only down 2.6%, meaning that smaller, less expensive homes are making up a larger portion of the sales. Detached homes showed a 9.6% decrease in sales over September numbers and 32% over last year. Average pricing is actually up 3.2% over last year, though they have slipped 3.9% compared to last month. The hotspot here is the sub-$1m market, though the sample size is small. This is further evidenced by the higher absorption rates seen in the sub-$500k market.

 

Detached homes sales slumped 31.8% over October and were down a full 50% over this time last year. Active listings were higher 21.2% above last year, but down 10.8% since October. Average pricing dipped 8% compared to both last year and last month. The $1-1.5m segment is the only price point here with any traction at the moment and it actually moving nicely at a balanced 18.3% absorption rate.

 

Vancouver East:
Attached property sales remained steady with October numbers but slipped 24.7% compared to last year. Active listings were up 19.7% over last year and down 8.7% over October. Average pricing is actually up slightly over both last year and last month, despite average price per square foot declining slightly. This is mainly due to a shift towards larger and higher end units on the Eastside. Both the $500-600k and $800-900k range are selling well.

 

Detached homes sales climbed slightly over October numbers but are down 28.9% compared to last year. Inventory is consistent with November 2011 and has dropped 14.4% since October. Prices have edged up slightly here as well. The $600-900k bracket is performing well as many people are using the downturn in the market to make the jump into entry level detached homes.

 

Downtown:
Sales activity downtown was hit hard last month, with a 64.8% drop over last year and 45.2% over last month. That said, active listings were also down 35.6% and 40.4% respectively. Average pricing showed healthy increases, up 31.2% compared to this time last year, as did average price per square foot numbers. Somewhat surprisingly, the $600-700k was the busiest market segment here.

 

North Vancouver:
Showing signs of stabilization month over month, attached properties in North Vancouver still slipped 33% compared to last November. Inventory is up 14% over last here, but down the same amount over October. Prices slipped 11% since the month previous, wiping out prior gains and coming in 6.3% below last year. Breaking the trend, prices are actually up 17.2% over last year. The entry level market has picked up a bit of steam here.

 

Detached home sales fell further in November, down 20.8% over last month and 35.6% over last year. While listing inventory was up over 40% compared to last year, it has actually dropped 17.6% since October. A slight dip in sales prices was noted versus October, with a more noticeable 9.5% decline in the past year. The $600-700k segment here remains extremely hot, while the $1.2m+ range has slowed to a crawl.

 

Look for December numbers to continue the trends mentioned above. Lack of inventory should help prices stabilize. All eyes will be on January to see if inventory rises... and if demand increases to match.

 

Wishing you and yours a very happy holiday season.

 

Ben

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Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Vancouver Real Estate Market Update Newsletter January 2012

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Market Update

January 2012

Happy New Year!

I hope you have all recovered from the holiday season and are back into the swing of things to start 2012 off on the right foot.

The December stats showed the expected dips in sales volume and new listings we would expect for this time of year and the numbers were consistent across the board. So, rather than looking back this month, let's look forward to what we can expect in the coming year:

(1) Look for a strong start to the year. There are a lot of eager buyers out there looking for good product and inventory levels have disappointed many of them the past few months. They are ready to buy if they can find what they are looking for.

(2) Listing inventory will climb. And it's about time. Those eager buyers from the previous point should finally have some options to choose from come February.

(3) Mortgage rates remain low. Likely right through to the end of the year and possibly beyond.

(4) The chaos in the global markets will not have a huge impact in Vancouver... yet. I would bet that we make it through the first half of the year unscathed. I will have to re-evaulate as we move forward before making any predictions beyond that point.

(5) 2012 will be a great year. Make it so!

Ben

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MARKET STATISTICS

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Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Vancouver Real Estate Market Update Newsletter December 2011

*|MC:SUBJECT|*

Market Update

December 2011

The holiday season is upon us and the Vancouver real estate market is starting its seasonal slow down. As I'm sure you are all busy putting up Christmas decorations, shopping and attending/recovering from parties, I'll keep it short this month and get straight to the numbers.

Active listings are down across the board, in most cases more than 10%, as most potential Sellers are now waiting until the new year to put their home on the market. Look for this number to dip even further in December before beginning a steady climb to start the year. Not surprisingly, sales activity also dipped in all markets, with the exception of downtown (up 5.9%). Median pricing was all over the map. Vancouver West saw prices hold relatively flat while Vancouver East saw dips in both the attached and detached markets. Despite the busier sales numbers, downtown actually showed the biggest price drop at almost 10%. North Vancouver showed a surprising bounce back in prices across the board.

What lies ahead? Look for December and January to be predictably slow, both with active listings and sales, while prices sit fairly flat. The big boost to inventory will hit come February and that is when we will see how the Buyer demand matches up and impacts affordability. If the market follows typical seasonal trends and Buyers are out in full force, look for prices to stay flat through the first half of the year. Should demand not live up to expectations, we may see a slight dip in prices across the board.Have a safe and happy holiday season!

Ben

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Featured Listings

175 E 4th Ave.

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Monday, November 7, 2011

Vancouver Real Estate Market Update Newsletter November 2011

*|MC:SUBJECT|*

Market Update

November 2011

After a somewhat surprising September, one that showed decreased sales rather than the typical upswing of activity, we were very curious to see what would the market would do in October. As it turns out, it completely depends on the neighbourhood. Last month's statistics show a large segmentation developing between individual markets and the 'overall picture' does not give a very clear sense of what is happening in each sub-section of the market place. Let me explain...

Starting with detached houses:

  • The Vancouver East market showed a substantial drop in sales (-24.3%), a slight drop in active listings (-5.4%) and a minor slip in median pricing (-2.7%)
  • The Vancouver West market displayed a healthy boost in sales activity (+16.9%), a negligible slip in inventory (-0.9%) and an increase in median pricing (+4.4%)
  • The North Vancouver market noted a noticeable increase in sales (+12.7%), a small dip in listings (-6.1%) and marginal price drop (-1.9%)

 

In the condo/townhome markets:

  • Downtown Vancouver was marked by a healthy increase in activity (+10.1%) and pricing (+3.6%), with an insignificant drop in inventory (-1.2%)
  • In the Westside, median prices rose (+7.0) while both active listings (-4.0%) and sales activity (-2.6%) trended downwards
  • The Eastside showed an rise in sales activity (+10.7%) and median price (+3.9%) while inventory dropped (-3.9%)
  • North Vancouver experienced a huge lift in sales activity (+42.6%), thanks in part to significant price drops (-15.4%), while inventory remained flat (-0.9%)

 

So what can we take from all this? In general, with the obvious exception of the Eastside detached market, sales activity is up substantially. This is the trend we expected to see in September and it finally materialized. Another interesting trend is that inventory levels seem to be slipping. Not by a lot, but if that downward trend continues, it would certainly help keep prices up. And speaking of prices... there is not really a consistent trend to attach on to. Price variance is very specific to the individual market at the moment and extra care should be taken to ensure that you are really aware of what is happening directly in the market you are focused on. The broad statistics of Vancouver as a whole just don't tell an accurate story anymore.

Ben

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Featured Listings

2772 Wall St.

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Thursday, June 9, 2011

Vancouver Real Estate Market Update Newsletter June 2011


Market Update

June 2011

Well, I was hoping we would be Stanley Cup champions by the time I sat down to write this month's newsletter, but I will certainly settle for the fact that we are still in the running! In fact, I think the Canucks playoff run added some much needed positivity to the city considering the awful run of weather we had through April and May. Let's hope the beautiful sunshine we've had to start June sticks around for awhile.

Now, on to the real estate market.... As discussed last month, the trend of decreasing sales volume continued through May with declines from 5% to 40%. It does appear that the early start to this year's Spring market has resulted in an early start to the Summer slowdown as well, which we now appear to be fully entrenched in. That said, the decreasing sales volume appears to be the only trend that is consistent across all market, so this month let's take a look at the individual markets a little more closely.

The Vancouver West detached market finally showed some signs of slowing of its torrid run to start the year. Sales dropped 17.1% while prices fell 8.7%, with active inventory remaining flat. The absorption rate remains high and the market here is still strong, but I expect to see further declines in this market moving forward. In the Vancouver West attached market, sales volume dropped a more dramatic 36.7% with prices slipping 9% and inventory climbing 6.7%. The declining sales here is not entirely unpredictable given the seasonality of the market, though the degree of the decline is more than expected. I suspect we may see a mild rebound in June and July.

The detached Vancouver East market showed the most resiliency this past month with sales slipping a mere 4.8% and prices down just 1.8%. Inventory actually dropped here as well, down 4.3%. Given the current disparity in prices between East and West, I believe this market will remain strong throughout the year. The Vancouver East attached market shows more similarity to its West side counterpart, with sales down 31%. This market, however, also shows inventory dropping 7.7% and prices that have actually climbed 2.4%. I would venture to guess that we will see these prices follow the downward trend next month.

Downtown, we saw a price rebound of 4.7% this month, after a significant drop last month, in spite of sales being down over 34%. Listing inventory remained flat, with less than a 1% change, so look for this market to remain stable over the Summer.

Taking a look at North Vancouver now, we see trends similar to the East side. The detached market showed modest declines in sales (10.7%) and prices (3.6%), but also displaying a dip in inventory of 4.1%. The attached market here took the hardest hit volume wise, with a 41.6% drop in sales and 7.6% increase in listing activity, but also saw prices climb 8.7% to an average $526,753. As with the East side market, look for those prices to slip downwards over the summer as well.

Much of the activity in the market right now can be attributed to seasonal factors, as the trends do follow in line with what we would expect historically. The exact timing this year has been moved up 4-6 weeks, but the general movement and scale of things falls within the expected range. Overall, homes that are priced well are still selling quickly and Buyers are seeing a little more selection than the beginning of the year presented. Enjoy the start of the Summer and let me know if you have any questions!

Ben

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Thursday, November 4, 2010

November 2010 Market Update Newsletter


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Market Update

What's Going on with the market?

As we enter into November, and what is typically the start of the slower winter season in the Vancouver real estate market, let's take look back at the October stats.

Let's start with a look at the detached market. Starting on the Westside, a steadily declining inventory has resulted in higher prices over the past 4 months. For the first time since April, the average Westside house price has pushed past the 2 million dollar mark to reach the highest point in history. I don't anticipate this trend continuing, and expect to see a levelling off or slight decline in the coming months. Moving to the Eastside, we see a similar trend with a declining inventory and steady sales volume, but this has not resulted in increasing prices. In fact, we have steady yet slight declines in pricing here since July. Expect things to level off come Winter.

In the condo market, the Westside and Eastside show almost identical trends. The average sales price has levelled off the past few months, while active inventory and sales have declined steadily. Expect more of the same this winter. In the downtown market, we are seeing an even more pronounced decline in inventory that started in May and is contrary to much of the "buyer's market" publicity that is all over the media. We did see prices fall slightly here, though sales volume remained flat. Properties on the lower end of the price scale appear to be moving more quickly as the luxury market has slowed significantly.

For a short term outlook, I expect the continuation of low interest rates and declining inventory to buoy the market and hold prices steady through the winter. What is to come this Spring is yet to be seen, but I think we will enjoy a period of stability over the next few months.



Ben Chimes

Vancouver West - Attached Statistics

Vancouver West Attached Statistics

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Vancouver West - Detached Statistics

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Vancouver East - Attached Statistics

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Vancouver East - Detached Statistics

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Vancouver Downtown Statistics

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Vancouver Downtown Graph

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Thursday, October 7, 2010

Vancouver Eastside - Attached Market Stats

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Thursday, October 7, 2010

Vancouver Westside - Detached

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